Tokyo 2020: Does Japan have Covid under control?

SharecloseShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingimage copyrightReutersWith the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics fast approaching, there have been warnings from medical experts about the possible spread of Covid at the Games.The Olympics begin on 23 July, and organisers say up to 10,000 domestic fans will be permitted at venues. The Paralympics starts on 24 August, with its spectator numbers to be confirmed by 16 July, What is the situation with infections in Japan? About 1,400 new infections are being reported every day, but case numbers have been falling from a peak of more than 6,000 in mid-May.Experts have said the daily infection rate in the host city of Tokyo needs to fall below 100 in order to hold the Games safely. On 21 June, the city’s health authorities reported 236 new infections, with an average over the last seven days of just under 400 new cases a day.The steep fall from mid-May has now levelled off, broadly matching the national picture. At the peak of infections in May, hospitals in many areas were overwhelmed, with large parts of Japan under a state of emergency, giving the authorities greater powers to enforce restrictions. There will be specific measures put in place in Tokyo, such as limits on bars, when the Games get under way. How many people have been vaccinated?A mass vaccination campaign was launched in the two biggest cities, Tokyo and Osaka, as infections rose. But to date, only about 16% of the country has been vaccinated. That’s about the same proportion as those who’ve had one dose in India. More than half the population of the UK, US and Germany have had one dose.Japan only started vaccinating people in February, later than most other developed nations.The Pfizer jab was, for some months, the only approved vaccine in Japan. This process took longer because Japan insisted on doing its own trials alongside the tests done internationally. image copyrightGetty ImagesOfficials say this was done to build confidence in the vaccine, according to the Asahi Shimbun newspaper. Historical concerns surrounding side effects have contributed to hesitancy towards inoculations in the past. An Imperial College London study of 15 countries found that Japan had the lowest levels of trust towards the coronavirus vaccines. The rollout has also been hampered by supply shortages and logistical hurdles. Japanese law has only permitted doctors and nurses to carry out vaccinations, but the rules have now been relaxed to allow dentists, paramedics and clinical technologists to bolster the vaccine drive. Since the start of the month, the number of daily jabs has almost doubled – a sign the new approach seems to be working.Japan has reportedly secured more than 300 million doses of Pfizer, AstraZeneca and Moderna shots (it approved the production and use of the latter two in May), which would be enough to vaccinate the entire population. What other measures has Japan taken?Japan – unlike many other countries – did not enforce strict lockdowns or completely close off its borders as soon as the pandemic hit last year.image copyrightGetty ImagesIn April 2020, the government introduced a state of emergency, although the stay-at-home guidelines were voluntary. Non-essential businesses were asked to close, but did not face penalties for not complying.Restrictions on entry were introduced from some countries, and others were added later.Although it has a large elderly population and densely-populated urban centres, Japan proved relatively successful in controlling the virus initially, and avoiding high death rates.There were a number of theories put forward as to why this might have been, including:high public compliance with safety measures such as mask wearingclose physical contact like hugging and kissing is generally avoidedlower rates of chronic disease like heart conditions, obesity and diabetesimage copyrightGetty ImagesHowever, there were outbreaks of the virus throughout 2020 and nationwide, case numbers rose sharply in the latter part of the year and into a peak this January. At the time, the government faced criticism over a campaign encouraging domestic travel in order to boost the economy.A state of emergency was declared in Tokyo and nine other regions when case numbers started to rise in April. Japan now has border restrictions in place – nationals of nearly 160 countries are currently denied entry (unless exceptional circumstances apply).Read more from Reality Check

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Coronavirus G7: Could a billion more vaccines for poorer countries make a difference?

SharecloseShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingimage copyrightEPAThe G7 group of leading industrial nations have pledged to donate one billion coronavirus vaccine doses to poorer countries.President Joe Biden, in the UK for a G7 summit, said the US contribution of 500 million doses would be “the largest single…donation of Covid-19 vaccines by any single country ever”.The UK has pledged more than 100 million doses over the next year.What’s been the response to the pledges?Over 870 million additional doses were pledged at the G7 summit, bringing total commitments made since February 2021, to one billion. The vaccines will mainly be delivered through the Covax vaccine scheme, which aims to reach the most vulnerable 20% of every nation around the world.”We need more, and we need them faster,” said the head of the World Health Organization Tedros Ghebreyesus in his response to the G7 pledge. “Many other countries are now facing a surge in cases – and they are facing it without vaccines.”South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said: “Even a billion vaccines, when we talk about two dose vaccines, it basically means 500 million… we need much more than that,” “We want to manufacture vaccines on our own, and we don’t have the capacity.”image copyrightGetty ImagesThe US has agreed to purchase 500 million doses from Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine at a “not for profit” price.Mr Biden vowed the US would be “the arsenal of vaccines in our fight against Covid”.It is understood that 200 million US doses will be distributed by the end of this year, and a further 300 million by June 2022. The US had already pledged to give 80 million doses to countries around the world.Five million UK vaccines will be donated by the end of September, and another 25 million by the end of 2021. Most of the UK doses (80%) will go via Covax.How many vaccines are needed for poorer countries?The scale of the task is huge, and vaccines are needed immediately. At a summit in early June, hosted by the Global Alliance for Vaccination and Immunisation (Gavi), it was announced that so far, more than 132 million doses had been shared by various countries. This included more than 54 million doses available for short-term supply donated by Belgium, Denmark and Japan, as well as additional supplies from Spain and Sweden.”The challenge is given the variants, given the movement of the virus, to get these vaccines available across the world as soon as possible,” Seth Berkley, the chief executive of Gavi told the BBC.He said Covax had already ordered more than 2.5 billion doses, but these wouldn’t come until the latter part of the year.”To vaccinate at least 10% of the population in every country by September, we need an additional 250 million… vaccine doses,” says Tedros Ghebreyesus of the WHO, of which 100 million are needed in June and July. The original Covax objective was to deliver two billion doses of vaccine worldwide by the end of this year, but the aim now is to get 1.8 billion doses to 92 lower income economies by early 2022.And all these commitments are a long way off the 11 billion doses the WHO estimates are needed to vaccinate the whole world to a level of 70%, the point at which transmission of the virus could be significantly reduced.Vaccine production constraints are a growing concernThe Covax scheme has mostly relied so far on the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine produced in India.However supplies were severely hit in March, April and May after India halted all major exports of the vaccine when it was hit by its own major second wave of the pandemic.image copyrightEPAA total of 1.1bn doses of Covishield (AstraZeneca) were ordered from India’s largest manufacturer – the Serum Institute of India (SII).So far, it has supplied just 30 million doses to Covax, with nearly 190 million doses held up as it struggled to ramp up its production. It says exports will only resume by the end of the year and that the company is focusing on meeting India’s own needs.There has also been an issue in some countries about the slow uptake and distribution of vaccines already delivered, with some African nations unable to use doses before they expire.”While more vaccines are vital, some African countries must ramp up actions to swiftly roll out the vaccines they have,” the WHO said.Read more from Reality Check

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India coronavirus: Can its vaccine producers meet demand?

SharecloseShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingimage copyrightGetty ImagesIndia, one of the world’s largest producers of coronavirus vaccines, is struggling to meet its export commitments.Its largest manufacturer says doses intended for the UK could be held up, and a big order to supply Nepal has also been put on hold.Why the shortfall? The Serum Institute of India (SII) – which produces Novavax and AstraZeneca vaccines – recently raised concerns about raw material shortages.Its chief executive, Adar Poonawalla, attributed this to US export bans on specific items needed to make vaccines, such as specialised bags and filters.image copyrightAFPThe firm said it has also faced difficulties importing cell culture media, single-use tubing and specialised chemicals from the US. “The sharing of these…raw materials is going to become a critical limiting factor — nobody has been able to address this so far,” said Mr Poonawalla.The SII has written to the Indian government asking it to intervene to ensure the uninterrupted manufacture and supply of vaccines globally. Another Indian manufacturer, Biological E, which is producing the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, has also raised concerns about possible shortages affecting vaccine production.Mahima Datla, the company’s chief executive, recently said US suppliers were “reluctant to commit that they will stick to their delivery timelines”.Why is the US restricting supplies?President Biden has asked his administration to identify potential shortfalls in materials required for vaccine production.He has invoked the Defense Production Act (DPA), legislation from the 1950s which gives the US president powers to mobilise the domestic economy in response to emergencies. The DPA allows the US to restrict the export of products which might be needed for domestic manufacturing. The Biden administration said it would use the act to increase the list of items that US vaccine makers would get priority access to, such as special pumps and filtration units.Representatives of various global vaccine makers raised concerns in early March, warning that:Export restrictions from key suppliers could affect global productionSome items lack standardisation and are highly specialisedReplacement with substitutes sourced from elsewhere could take up to 12 monthsDr Sarah Schiffling, an expert on vaccine supply chains at Liverpool’s John Moores University, says the pharmaceutical supply chain is very complex.”Even when demand is very high, new suppliers can’t spring up as quickly as they would in some other industries, or at least those new suppliers would not be trusted.”She also says that the US measures are as much a reaction to existing global shortages, as they are the cause of them.”To some degree, shortages would be unavoidable for materials needed for any kind of product that is suddenly in demand around the world,” she says.Impact on India’s vaccine productionimage copyrightGetty ImagesThere are currently two vaccines approved in India – the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine (known locally as Covishield) and Covaxin, developed in Indian laboratories.Since early January, nearly 130 million doses of Covishield from the SII have been either exported or used domestically.Indian pharmaceutical companies have been ramping up production by adding new facilities or converting existing production lines for some months now, both to meet domestic demand and meet global supply requirements.The Serum Institute said in January it could at that point turn out between 60 and 70 million vaccine doses a month – this includes Covishield and the US-developed Novavax (not yet licensed for use).

Getty ImagesTop Indian Covid vaccine makersSIICovishield, NovavaxBharat BiotechCovaxin, CoraVaxBiological EJohnson & JohnsonZydus CadilaZyCoV-DHetero BiopharmaSputnik VDr Reddy’s LabSputnik VSource: Media reportsThe SII told the BBC back then it was aiming to boost production to 100 million doses a month from March – but when we checked with them recently, production was still at 60 to 70 million doses, and had not increased.The company did not clarify if it already had stockpiles of the vaccines it produces, and how much of its production has been earmarked for domestic use only.Is India meeting domestic needs?The Indian government began its vaccination programme on 16 January, and so far the country has inoculated over 39 million people amid fears of a possible second wave. Infections have been increasing in some parts of the country.The authorities aim to administer 600 million doses within seven months – that’s about 85 million doses a month.image copyrightEPASo far, the SII has an agreement to supply 100 million doses to the Indian government, with another firm, Bharat Biotech, supplying 10 million doses.India also has licensing deals with the Russian Gamaleya Research Institute to produce 200 million doses of the Sputnik vaccine.These will be produced by Indian manufacturers, for both the Indian market and for export. The SII chief, Adar Poonawalla, indicated in January that official approval for Covishield was granted on the understanding that company prioritise Indian domestic needs.However, the Indian government subsequently made clear there were no restrictions on exports, after Bangladesh queried if a contract to supply Covishield would be honoured.Who will get India’s vaccines?India’s SII also has commitments to the UN-backed Covax initiative to help low and middle-income countries secure access to vaccines.Last September, the SII agreed to supply 200 million doses to Covax – either the AstraZeneca or Novavax vaccines.image copyrightAFPThe SII has also made bilateral commercial deals, amounting to nearly 900 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccine, and 145 million doses of Novavax, according to UN data.The Indian government has also donated vaccines to a number of countries, with a particular emphasis on its neighbours in South Asia.It’s so far made more vaccine donations than China with over eight million doses given away, compared with 7.3 million, according to UN data. Read more from Reality CheckSend us your questions

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