SharecloseShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingImage source, AFPSouth African scientists – praised internationally for first detecting the Omicron variant – have accused Western nations of ignoring early evidence that the new Covid variant was “dramatically” milder than those which drove previous waves of the pandemic.Two of South Africa’s most prominent coronavirus experts told the BBC that Western scepticism about their work could be construed as “racist,” or, at least, a refusal “to believe the science because it came from Africa”.”It seems like high-income countries are much more able to absorb bad news that comes from countries like South Africa,” said Prof Shabir Madhi, a vaccine expert at Johannesburg’s University of the Witwatersrand. “When we’re providing good news, all of a sudden there’s a whole lot of scepticism. I would call that racism.”Prof Salim Karim, former head of the South African government’s Covid advisory committee and vice-president of the International Science Council agrees.”We need to learn from each other. Our research is rigorous. Everyone was expecting the worst [about Omicron] and when they weren’t seeing it, they were questioning whether our observations were sufficiently scientifically rigorous,” he said, while acknowledging that the sheer number of new mutations in Omicron may have contributed to an abundance of scientific caution.South Africa’s latest wave of Covid, which began in late November 2021, is now declining as sharply as it once rose and is likely to be declared over, nationwide, in the coming days. There are still concerns that the infection rate could spike again following the reopening of schools, but, overall, the country’s Omicron wave is expected to last half as long as previous waves.By early last month, scientists and doctors here were already sharing anecdotal evidence indicating that Omicron, while highly contagious, was resulting in far fewer hospital admissions or deaths than the Delta wave.’Data met with scepticism'”The predictions we made at the start of December still hold. Omicron was less severe. Dramatically. The virus is evolving to adapt to the human host, to become like a seasonal virus,” said Prof Marta Nunes, senior researcher at the Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics department of the University of Witwatersrand.The WHO continues to warn against calling Omicron “mild,” pointing out that its high transmissibility was causing a “tsunami” worldwide, threatening to overwhelm health systems. But South African scientists are sticking by their data.”The death rate is completely different [with Omicron]. We’ve seen a very low mortality rate,” said Prof Karim, who pointed to the latest data showing hospital admissions were four times lower than with Delta, and the number of patients requiring ventilation was similarly reduced.”It didn’t take even two weeks before the first evidence started coming out that this is a much milder condition. And when we shared that with the world there was some scepticism,” Prof Karim added.It has been argued that Africa – or at least some parts of the continent – may be experiencing the pandemic differently due to demographics and other factors. South Africa’s average age, for instance, is 17 years younger than the UK’s. But scientists in South Africa insist that any demographic advantage the population might have in terms of battling Covid is outweighed by poor health. Excess deaths in South Africa during the pandemic now sit at 290,000 – or 480 per 100,000 people – which is more than double the UK figure. “The fact is that South Africa has got a much more susceptible population than the UK when it comes to severe disease. Yes, we’ve got a younger population… but we’ve got an unhealthier population because of a higher prevalence of other co-morbidities including obesity and HIV,” said Prof Madhi.”Each situation and each country has some unique characteristics. But we’ve learned how to extrapolate from one setting to another,” said Prof Karim.The figure of 290,000 excess deaths has not been confirmed as an accurate reflection of the pandemic’s toll in South Africa. It is three times the number of official Covid-19 deaths. But scientists here believe a majority of those excess deaths are probably due to the pandemic. Half of them occurred during the Delta wave, but, so far, only 3% transpired during the Omicron wave, said Prof Madhi.No more quarantineSouth Africa’s government declined to introduce tighter restrictions during the Omicron wave and bitterly criticised foreign governments for their initial imposition of strict travel bans from the region. Scientists here have generally welcomed the government’s light-touch response, and now argue that other countries might do well to follow its example.”We believe the virus is not going to be eradicated from the human population. We must now learn how to live with this virus and it will learn how to live with us,” said Prof Nunes.Image source, AFP”The [low death rate from Omicron] shows we’re in a different phase of the pandemic. I’d refer to it as a convalescent phase,” said Prof Madhi. He observed that South Africa had, “for all intents and purposes”, stopped quarantining and contact tracing, and he urged the government to stop testing for Covid-19 at a community level too, saying it was unnecessary and amounted to pointless “bean counting”. Instead, he said the priority should be to minimise the number of people who are hospitalised by Covid-19. Prof Madhi also expressed concern that mixed messages about South Africa’s growing success in fighting the pandemic could “really diminish confidence in vaccines [despite the fact that] we know vaccines prevent severe disease”.Although South Africa lags far behind countries like the UK in terms of vaccination rates, at least three-quarters of the population now enjoys significant protection from a combination of prior infections and vaccinations. Prof Karim acknowledged that Omicron’s high transmissibility was causing temporary problems for countries like the US, but, citing South Africa’s own experience, he said “the good thing is that because [the infection rate] has gone up that fast, it’ll go down that fast too, so the pressure on hospitals will be much less”.WHO warns Covid not over amid Europe case recordsHas the UK’s Omicron wave peaked already?What can South Africa teach us about Omicron?South Africa battles Omicron fear and vaccine myths

SharecloseShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingImage source, Getty ImagesSouth African scientists – hailed for their discovery of Omicron – are investigating the “highly plausible hypothesis” that the emergence of new Covid-19 variants could be linked, in some cases, to mutations taking place inside infected people whose immune systems have already been weakened by other factors, including, though not limited to, untreated HIV.Researchers have already observed that Covid-19 can linger for many months in patients who are HIV positive but who have, for varying reasons, not been taking the medicines that would enable them to lead healthy lives.”Normally your immune system would kick a virus out fairly quickly, if fully functional,” said Professor Linda-Gayle Bekker, who heads the Desmond Tutu HIV Foundation in Cape Town.”In someone where immunity is suppressed, then we see virus persisting. And it doesn’t just sit around, it replicates. And as it replicates it undergoes potential mutations. And in somebody where immunity is suppressed that virus may be able to continue for many months – mutating as it goes,” she added.But, as they push ahead with their research, the scientists are anxious to avoid further stigmatising people living with HIV, both in South Africa – home to the world’s largest HIV epidemic – and globally.”It’s important to stress that people who are on anti-retroviral medication – that does restore their immunity,” Professor Bekker said.Two cases of particular interest have now been detected in South African hospitals. One woman continued to test positive for Covid-19 for almost eight months, earlier this year, while the virus underwent more than 30 genetic shifts.Professor Tulio de Oliveira, who leads the team that confirmed the discovery of Omicron, noted that “10 to 15″ similar cases had been found in other parts of the world, including the UK.”It’s a very rare event. But it is a plausible explanation that individuals that are immuno-suppressed… can basically be a source of virus evolution,” he said.South African scientists have faced criticism – and even death threats on social media – after their recent discovery of the Omicron variant triggered swift, controversial and economically damaging travel bans from Western nations. They are keen to pre-empt any suggestion that their country, or the continent, should be singled out for producing new variants.The link between immuno-suppressed patients and new Covid variants is “a highly plausible hypothesis”, said Professor Salim Karim, a leading HIV specialist and former chair of the South African government’s Covid19 advisory committee. “But it’s not proven. We’ve seen five variants come from four different continents. So, to scapegoat Africa is simply outrageous. “It’s saying that we’re not worried about immuno-compromised people from the rest of the world. We’re just worried if they’re black and from Africa,” Professor Karim added. Image source, AFPScientists also note that there are many other reasons, globally, why people’s immune systems might be compromised. The emergence, for instance, of the Alpha variant has been linked to a patient receiving treatment for cancer in the UK.”Diabetes, cancer, hunger, auto-immune diseases, chronic TB, obesity – we have a huge population of people with suppressed immunity for other reasons,” said Professor Marc Mendelson, head of infectious diseases at Cape Town’s Groote Schuur hospital.In South Africa, nearly eight million people are living with HIV. But about one third of them are not currently taking medication. In Masiphumelele, a crowded township squeezed between rocky hillsides and the Atlantic Ocean, south of Cape Town, a quarter of the adult population in the township is estimated to have HIV.”There’s lots of issues. Some [people] don’t want to get tested. Some don’t want to know. There’s stigma around HIV,” said a community liaison worker, Asiphe Ntshongontshi, 25, explaining why, despite a hugely effective health programme both here and nationwide, a significant number of people were not taking drug prescriptions.There is currently no evidence that any of the current Covid variants of concern have emerged in Africa, although the sudden arrival in southern Africa of a variant as transmissible as Omicron has fuelled speculation that it may be linked to someone local with a compromised immune system.Scientists tracking the virus say they hope that concern about a potential link with HIV will spur greater global action at a time when the fight against HIV has been neglected, in some areas, because of the pandemic.”It’s a worldwide problem – this need to understand how viral infections thrive in our global community. And the best resource we have [for tackling it] at the moment is vaccination. That message has to go out loud and clear,” Prof Bekker said.While Africa still lags far behind the rest of the world in Covid vaccinations, researchers in South Africa say it is important to focus particular attention on people with weakened immune systems, who might need four or even five booster shots for the vaccines to trigger an appropriate immune response.”If we want to slow down the risk of creating new variants, we have to take up this challenge in every country around the world. That’s to try to ensure immune-compromised individuals are fully vaccinated and that they have detectable immune responses to vaccines. “And if not, they must be given extra doses until they develop an immune response. That’s our best protection from the possibility that immune-compromised people are developing variants,” Professor Karim said.This video can not be playedTo play this video you need to enable JavaScript in your browser.