Published36 minutes agoShareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingImage source, Getty ImagesBy Robert CuffeBBC VerifyPrime Minister Rishi Sunak, who this week is set to defend his handling of the pandemic at the Covid inquiry, has been criticised for his role in the 2020 Eat Out To Help Out scheme. Government scientists say they were not consulted and that it was “highly likely” to have increased Covid infections and deaths. Representatives of bereaved families claim “masses of people almost certainly died” because of the then-chancellor’s “callous and reckless attitude”. At the time, Mr Sunak played down a link between his scheme and the spread of the virus in the UK, saying “what’s happening here is pretty much in sync with what’s happening around the world in second waves”. BBC Verify examines how much the scheme contributed to the growth of the virus. What was Eat Out To Help Out? Diners received a state-backed 50% discount on meals and soft drinks in pubs and restaurants (up to £10 each) on Mondays, Tuesdays and Wednesdays around the UK during August 2020. The scheme aimed to protect jobs in the hospitality sector by encouraging people to dine out. This was one of several support measures for a sector that had already been hit hard during the pandemic, and included pubs, restaurants, cinema, hotels and nightclubs. Other measures included VAT cuts, rates relief and small business grants. How much did Eat Out To Help Out help the economy? The scheme cost £840m and covered 160 million meals during the month.At the time, lockdown restrictions were easing and some people had money to spend after months with little socialising. According to data from booking site OpenTable, restaurant reservations on Monday to Wednesday (the days of the scheme) were up by more than half in August 2020 compared with the previous August.Image source, PA MediaBut some of the extra bookings on those days were people choosing different nights to go out, rather than deciding to go out more. The Office for National Statistics found that a higher proportion of restaurant spend on Revolut debit cards happened from Monday to Wednesday that month.The scheme was a “significant boost for the sector when it needed it the most”, says Kate Nicholls, the chief executive of industry body UK Hospitality. But furlough and business rates relief were “more significant”, she adds, offering help to the whole sector, rather than just pubs and restaurants. The overall economic activity in accommodation and food services was still slightly down on the previous August.And an analysis of footfall and job adverts in areas where more restaurants used the scheme suggests that any benefits were small and “transitory”. The study’s authors, from the London School of Economics, suggested that the programme “failed to encourage people to go out for other purposes and to eat out after the discount ended”. How much did Eat Out To Help Out help to spread coronavirus? The scheme ran during August 2020. There was often a delay between infection and it showing up in the official Covid figures. If you caught coronavirus at the end of August, for example, it might not appear in the figures for a week or so. Case numbers from testing in the UK rose from about 6,400 in the first week of August to about 23,000 in the second week of September – roughly a 250% rise. But as the chart below shows, some of our European neighbours saw faster rises over that period. Although countries like Spain and France did not have specific eating out schemes, they did allow holidaymakers to travel there in the summer, and suffered a new spike in cases. In England, as well as Eat Out To Help Out, the country was generally opening up after a very stringent lockdown. From 4 July, most hospitality businesses could reopen, and people were allowed to meet in groups of up to 30 – although it was recommended to avoid groups of more than six. The rises in infections started to pick up speed in early September, as children went back to school and some of their parents returned to the office. And we now know that the same month, the Alpha variant, which took over in December, had already started spreading.A study from University of Warwick, that tried to tease out the effect of the scheme, reported a link between how much Eat Out To Help Out was used and the spread of the virus. The authors estimated that the scheme might have increased the number of cases seen in August by up to 20%. Based on the speed of the virus’s spread at the time, a 20% increase would be like bringing the autumn wave forward “by about three days”, Bristol mathematician Prof Oliver Johnson told BBC’s More or Less this year.The scheme may have contributed to the spread of the virus even in places that did not have as many meals out. It “completely reversed” the government’s messaging that mixing was high-risk, Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, told the inquiry. But even the total increase in Covid from August to mid-September is tiny compared with the rise to the peak in early January 2021.Take deaths involving Covid: it often took a month for a fatal case of coronavirus to run its course.So infections from August that ended in death might not have done so until September. In September, nearly 900 deaths in the UK involved Covid, according to death certificates, up from just under 550 in August. In January 2021, more than 36,000 deaths involved Covid. “I doubt that the UK’s Covid-19 epidemic in late 2020 would have unfolded that differently without Eat Out to Help Out,” Prof Mark Woolhouse, a scientist involved in Sage, the government’s scientific advisory body, told the Covid inquiry. But Mr Sunak had little way of knowing that when he commissioned the scheme. Government scientists repeatedly told the inquiry that they were not asked to model what effect the scheme would have, only learning about the plans when they were announced.Additional reporting: Gerry Georgieva, Jemimah Herd, Rob England and Tamara Kovacevic

SharecloseShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingImage source, Getty ImagesIn the early days of the pandemic, it was extremely rare to hear of people catching Covid twice. That’s not the case anymore, especially since the Omicron variant emerged in late November 2021. Why are more people catching Covid again? Part of it is Omicron itself – a variant that’s better at sneaking past defences built on old infections. Part of it is a numbers game. So many of us have already been infected at some point, that a rising proportion of new infections are a second bout. But getting Covid twice in short space of time is still pretty unlikely, even with the latest version of Omicron which is widespread in the UK. And for most people a second infection is less likely to make them very ill. Covid symptoms: Is a runny nose a cold or Covid?How to look after yourself if you get CovidHow likely are you to catch Covid twice? Eventually, pretty likely – immunity fades and coronaviruses evolve. Most people can expect to catch the other coronaviruses, such as those which cause common cold symptoms, many times in their life. Image source, Getty ImagesBut early in the pandemic, that didn’t seem to be the case with Covid. Fewer than 1% of all cases recorded in the UK before November 2021 were labelled as re-infections. But then Omicron took over. This looks very different to the versions of coronavirus that we saw before. Its differences give it a better chance of sneaking past the body’s early defences, which were based on exposure to previous Covid infections. And so the rates of re-infection have been about 10 times higher this year compared with rates seen earlier in the pandemic. How many people have been infected more than once with Covid?How many cases are there in your area?How is the new version of Omicron different?This new “Spring” Omicron – known as BA.2 – has driven UK infections back up to record levels. The Office for National Statistics said that around one in 16 people across the UK had Covid in the week ending 19 March. It is similar to – but even more infectious than – the version that came before, “Christmas” Omicron (BA.1).If you’ve had Covid in the past few months, it’s likely to have been a version of Omicron, which in turn should give you good protection against a second bout of it. The data we have so far suggest that a second Omicron infection is “rare, but can occur”. More reinfections have been seen among younger people and those who haven’t been vaccinated.Laboratory studies suggest that a combination of an Omicron infection and vaccination could leave your body even better prepared to fight off a new infection than one infection alone. About 4.5 million people have had a Covid booster dose since the start of the year, with another two million getting their second dose. And tens of millions of us have protection from a recent infection. About one in three of us caught Covid during the first Omicron wave.But even if there’s only a small chance of any one person catching Omicron a second time, you’re quite likely to hear about it happening. It’s a small chance multiplied by the tens of millions of people who have recently had Covid. Will it make me sicker?So far, it looks like a case of BA.2 is no more likely to put you in hospital than a case of BA.1 was. And even if you do test positive again, that “is not the same as being sick with Covid-19,” according to immunologist Professor Eleanor Riley. “It means there is virus in your nose and throat.” The protection provided by vaccination or having had a previous infection is more useful at preventing the virus from getting into your body and doing serious damage, than it is at keeping the virus out of your nose and throat. Professor Riley thinks if you test positive again but feel well, “your main concern should be whether you might pass it on to someone who is particularly vulnerable”. An infection can still land some people in hospital, particularly those with weakened immune systems or underlying health conditions.But despite the record numbers of Covid infections, the current wave is putting even fewer people in hospital than we saw in January – precisely because so many of us now have a combination of protection from vaccination and previous infections. During January’s peak, about 55% of people in Covid beds in English hospitals were being treated mainly for their Covid. The most recent figures, for 22 March, say that figure is down to about 45%. And the total numbers of people in hospital with Covid are less than half of what we saw in January 2021. The government hopes the spring booster vaccine rollout will help top up immunity for the most vulnerable, and make it even harder for Omicron to cause serious illness, whether it strikes once or twice. More on this storyRos Atkins on… the UK’s rising Covid infections